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 Research |
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Revisiting the Credit Crisis |
| Last week the Asset Backed Security market came to a grinding halt and U.S. bank failures reached 103 for the year. The U.S. financial system looked stressed just like it did during the Credit Crisis. More reason to think conditions are still far from being back to normal. - 07-29-2010 |
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8 More Reasons for a Double-Dip Recession |
| As companies continue to report earning above expectations, the economic numbers continue to weaken and the case for a double-dip recession continues to strengthen. Here are eight reasons why another recession is imminent. - 07-28-2010 |
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Flaws of the European Stress Test |
| We’ve known about the European financial crisis for several months. We also know that the European Union approved a $1 trillion aid package. Why is the stress test needed? Is the stress tests only purpose to massage the masses into a comfort zone?
- 07-27-2010 |
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EU Banks Rally on Invalid Stress Tests |
| The EU bank stress tests indicated there were few problems in the system. Even though they have been roundly criticized as merely a PR gambit, bank stocks rallied on the results nevertheless. When markets rally on false numbers disaster usually follows as was the just case with the phony Greek debt statistics. Apparently, the Europeans have yet to learn their lesson. - 07-27-2010 |
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New Home Sales: No Real Rebound |
| The Commerce Department released June new home sales today and claimed they were up 24%. This is only the case if you take into account the May figure being revised downward to 267,000. The previous number reported for May was 300,000, which was an all-time low. No matter how you look at it, new home sales are at a depression level. - 07-26-2010 |
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Up 10 Percent in 15 Days - Is The Bear Market Over? |
| It’s easy to get caught up in something that feels so good, such as rising stock prices. Over the past few weeks, the markets have gained nearly 10%. The obvious question is whether this marks the end of the bear market or if we are about to fall victim to another sucker rally.
- 07-26-2010 |
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UK Q2 Growth Overstated By Error in Construction Numbers |
| The UK released its second quarter GDP figures today and claimed that the economy grew by 1.1% in the last three months. Looking inside the numbers however indicates that this is highly unlikely. The biggest contributor to growth was construction spending. This supposedly increased by 6.6% indicating a big building boom was taking place, although there isn't any real world evidence of this. The UK changed how it calcuated its construction numbers and this is the obvious source of a significant error. Correcting for this, the UK economy doesn't look like it's in very good shape. - 07-23-2010 |
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Stocks Rally Despite Bernanke's Economic Failure |
| In his testimony before congress yesterday, Fed Chair Bernanke admitted the prospects for the U.S. economy were dim. Stocks sold off during the testimony, but rallied strongly this morning on good corporate earnings. Mainsteam media has suggested that earnings have decoupled from the economy. Government manipulation of the markets is a more likely explanation for the rally. - 07-22-2010 |
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Chinese Stocks Have Been In a Bear Market Since May 6th |
| The Chinese market has been trading ahead of the U.S. market since the fall of 2008. The Shanghai Composite bottomed four months before the major U.S. indices. It peaked last August and has traded in bear market territory since early May. Will U.S. stocks follow? - 07-21-2010 |
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Are Gold and Silver Losing Their Luster? |
| The technical picture is turning negative for both gold and silver. It now looks like they will follow stocks down, with silver leading the way. - 07-20-2010 |
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FDIC May Need Bailout Soon. |
| The FDIC is running out of money just like the insolvent banks it closes down. Even though the agency collected three years of payments from banks for its deposit insurance fund last December, it looks like it has already spent all the money. Bank failures will be higher this year than last and the FDIC will need a government bailout if it is to continue to operate. - 07-19-2010 |
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Big Drop in Global Shipping Continues |
| The Baltic Dry Index hit 1700 today and this is its lowest level since April 2009. The index has dropped almost 60% in seven weeks. This is bigger than any decline during the Credit Crisis. The stock market is bound to be affected. - 07-16-2010 |
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Bank's Real Earnings - A House of Cards |
| This week, Bank of America admitted that it engaged in a practice similar to what Lehman Brothers did before its demise. What moved BofA to confess and how big is the problem really? Can you even trust reported earnings numbers? - 07-16-2010 |
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Now It's Nasdaq Giving a Bear Market Alert |
| The 50-day moving average fell below Nasdaq's 200-day on Wednesday producing a bear market trading signal. The next 10 days will be critical in determining whether or not the market can turn around or will sink further. - 07-15-2010 |
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Will Earnings Sink the Market Again? |
| Buy the rumor, sell the news, has been the pattern of the previous two earnings seasons. January earnings were followed by a 9% drop, April earnings were followed by a 17% drop. What will July earnings be like? - 07-15-2010 |
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Good Earnings in a Bad Economy |
| Intel reported blockbuster earnings and this is being cited as evidence that the U.S. economy must be in good shape. Economic releases contradict this. The growth of a new technology and strong sales in East Asia help resolve the apparent contradiction. - 07-14-2010 |
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Alcoa and CSX Will Have Tough Comparisons in Q3 |
| Earnings were out for Alcoa and CSX today and they looked good in comparison to the Credit Crisis devastation in Q2 2009. Comparisons will not be so easy for the third quarter however. - 07-13-2010 |
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Three Market Sectors That Look Best for Earnings |
| Second quarter earnings season begins this week and the market is indicating which sectors potentially look the best. Earnings are backward looking however and reports will only be bullish for stocks if positive forward looking statements are made by companies. - 07-12-2010 |
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Technical Indicators Trigger Major Sell Signal |
| For the first time in 2010, the S&P’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has dropped below the 200-day SMA., triggering a sell signal. The last two times such a signal was given, the S&P continued to move in that direction for 324 and 794 points. If the signal is correct – and it is 75% of the time – a huge down move lies ahead. - 07-09-2010 |
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Fed Using Model That Failed to Predict 5 Recessions |
| The Federal Reserve uses a yield curve based model to predict recessions. This model is currently predicting only a 10% chance of a double-dip. This shouldn't make investors confident though since the model failed to predict the Great Recession and four other major recessions as well. - 07-09-2010 |
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Top 10 Reasons For a Double-Dip Recession |
| The economic elites are confident that there won't be a double-dip recession, just as they were confident that there wouldn't be a recession in 2008. That turned into the worst economic downturn since the 1930s. Once again there are a number of warning signs that the economy is falling into recession and these are being ignored. - 07-08-2010 |
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Should You Bear Market Proof Your Portfolio? |
| Stocks have fallen 17% from their April highs. A 20% decline is commonly viewed as a bear market. Is it time to bear market proof your portfolio? How can you detect the onset of major declines before it is too late? - 07-07-2010 |
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Dow Follows S&P 500 in Giving Bear Market Signal |
| The 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day for the Dow Industrials on July 7th. The bear market cross already took place for the S&P 500 on July 2nd. The Russell 2000 confirmed it was in a bear market with a close-to-close 20.5% loss on July 6th. - 07-07-2010 |
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Europe Centered Rally Raises U.S. Stocks |
| A huge rally in European stocks flowed into the U.S. markets today. After two weeks of selling, a relief rally in stocks should be expected, but both the technical and economic backdrops remain negative. - 07-06-2010 |
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Small Caps in Bear Market, Big Caps to Follow |
| As of Friday July 2nd, the small cap Russell 2000 lost 20.2% in the current sell off, meeting the definition of a bear market. The S&P500 gave a bear market signal the same day. The Dow Industrials and Nasdaq will do so soon. - 07-05-2010 |
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Unemployment - Beware of Unfounded Optimism |
| "Unemployment is the lowest in eleven months" is the message conveyed by today's job report. Not so fast, a look at broader measures shows this is not the case. In fact, there is reason to be seriously concerned about the jobs report and the outlook for stocks. - 07-02-2010 |
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Employment Numbers Don't Account for Graduating Students |
| Millions of students enter the U.S. labor market each May and June and yet the BLS has reported that almost one million workers have left the labor force in the last two months. There were also 301,000 less employed people in June than in May, but the non-farms payroll headline number indicated a loss of only 125,000 jobs. Stocks intially rallied on the news, but then sold off after getting a look at the details of the report. - 07-02-2010 |
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Real Estate Market is Already in Depression |
| The number of buyers who signed contracts to purchase homes dropped in May to the lowest level on record. But that's nothing new, real estate has been in a funk all throughout the alleged recovery. In fact, many seem accustomed to this lackluster performance. This article highlights the pivotal role of the real estate sector and why it is pushing the entire economy towards the brink of collapse. - 07-01-2010 |
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Correction in Q2 Will Become a Bear Market in Q3 |
| Stocks were in a correction in the second quarter. A head and shoulders top on the S&P 500 was confirmed on June 30th, which indicates further selling ahead. The first of the month trading indicator already confirmed a bear market in early June. A moving average cross will add additional confirmation by July 2nd. - 07-01-2010 |
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Below 200-Day MA – False Alarm or Historic Sell Signal? |
| For more than six weeks, the S&P has been flirting with the 200-day moving average (MA). The most recent signal given by the 200-day MA is a clear sell signal. But how reliable is the 200-day MA? What’s the best way of using the 200-day MA? Find out here. - 06-29-2010 |
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