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 Research |
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Should You Buy on Dips or Sell Into Rallies? |
| The unemployment announcement and other news reports have been causing a lot of up-and down swings in the market. Are dips good opportunities to buy stocks, or rallies good opportunities to sell. A look at some short-and long-term indicators provides the answer. - 11-06-2009 |
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How to Replace Lost Dividend Income |
| No one makes a big deal about it, but dividend yields are the lowest they’ve been in a while. Among other things, a market in rally mode has covered up the fact that more companies than ever before have cut dividend payments. Is this trend here to stay? What can you do about it? - 11-04-2009 |
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Economists Say: The Recession is Over! Why This Outlook is Worrysome |
| 80% of economist are now saying that the recession is over. This sounds good, but where were such predictions in March before the monster rally started? Investors willing to dig deeper will find that the economist’s optimism, may actually be a sign for more trouble ahead. - 11-02-2009 |
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Are You Ready for What’s Coming, Uncle Sam? |
| A Century ago Uncle Sam asked the nation, ‘are you prepared’? Today, with growing bank failures, mounting debt, and rising unemployment we return the question, ‘are you prepared for what’s coming, Uncle Sam’? - 10-30-2009 |
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What's Next - Minor Correction or Major Collapse? |
| Over the past few months, every attempt by the bears to depress prices has been met with renewed buying pressure, resulting in even higher prices. What goes up, however, has to come down and some subtle signs are indicating that this decline might be more than a simple correction, much more. - 10-27-2009 |
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5 Disturbing Facts For The Bulls |
| The Dow’s push beyond 10,000 has covered up many of the disturbing numbers floating around. Of course Wall Street doesn’t mind you thinking that everything is all right. For those willing to read between the lines, this article provides some serious food for thought. - 10-23-2009 |
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Bulls or Bears – Who Will Have The Last Laugh? |
| There seems to be a tug of war between bulls and bears, up and down. Based on current sentiment readings, the stakes are high, a major turning point seems to be ahead, and you certainly would not want to be caught on the wrong side of what’s about to happen. - 10-21-2009 |
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11 ETFs You Shouldn’t Own |
| Some indexes have rallied 70% in seven months. The time for easy profits is certainly over. No winning streak lasts forever and savvy investors need to know when to hold’em and when to fold’em. The upside potential for many ETFs is close to zero. Here’s a list of ETFs likely to check out early and fall harder and faster than the rest. - 10-19-2009 |
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Are Stocks Ripe For Another Black Monday? |
| All Black Mondays – there were three - have one thing in common: They occurred in October and they came unannounced. If you are thinking that a Black Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or any other black day is unlikely, keep in mind that “black” strikes when least expected. - 10-13-2009 |
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Allow Me to Introduce: The Biggest Sucker Rally Since The Great Depression |
| A 50% rally, Warren Buffett, extreme levels of optimism, rallies based on vague reports of improvements, etc.; all the aforementioned are parallels between the 1929-1930 bear market rally and the rally from the March lows. If the parallels hold up, a mere rhyme to history (let alone a repeat), will wipe out millions of next eggs. Here’s how to avoid repeating your grand parent’s mistakes. - 10-07-2009 |
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Why Dow 10,000 Will Remain Untouched For Years |
| Dow 10,000 has once again captured the attention of investors. Some believe that a breach of this magical level will set the stage for even higher prices, while others think Dow 10,000 will be nothing more than a “group-hug.” Regardless, Dow 10,000 is a foregone conclusion which should make the savvy investor suspicious. In fact, Dow 10,000 is unlikely to happen anytime soon. - 10-05-2009 |
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Is Reality Finally Catching Up With Stocks? |
| What goes up must come down, so says an old Wall Street adage. Stocks have rallied 50% in six months and have come too far too fast. You may not be surprised to hear that stocks are currently overvalued, but did you know that stocks were overvalued even at the March lows? If you think that a significant decline is implied, you are correct. - 09-29-2009 |
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$1,000/oz Gold – New Reality or New Bubble? |
| Many believe a gold bubble is impossible. That sounds reasonable, but did you think an oil bubble was possible. Oil, just like gold, is a limited natural resource. About a year ago, oil was trading at $149/barrel.
Within less than a year, oil prices tumbled to $35/barrel. Investor sentiment and a strengthening dollar point towards lower gold prices as well, but how low? - 09-25-2009 |
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Is The Rally Over? |
| Selective short-term memory loss is a dangerous condition for investors. Relentless has been the rally from the March lows but relentless were also the losses from the 2007 highs. The decline from yesterday's intraday highs marks the biggest 2-day decline of this rally. Momentum has turned negative. Is this rally over? - 09-24-2009 |
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3 Facts That Should Worry The Bulls |
| Are you afraid of modern-day ghost ships? You should be. Hundreds of high seas freighters are anchored close to Singapore’s shoreline. Despite an allegedly improving economy, these giants of the seas are idle, waiting for orders. In some twisted way, these ghost ships might be today’s version of the Trojan horse. And guess what, an economic recovery is not what’s hiding in the giant hull. - 09-23-2009 |
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Sucker Rally or New Bull Market – A Historical Perspective |
| The market’s recent run has rendered many short-term indicators obsolete leaving investors wondering what’s next. There is no need to panic though, as so often happens, history proves to be a valuable and reliable guide. See how Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can foreshadow what’s to come next. - 09-18-2009 |
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The Herding Effect - Why Investors Are Usually Wrong |
| Humans, much like animals, often find safety in numbers. Whatever the majority does must be correct, right? But, what if most investors are heading for a cliff? A detailed analysis of investor sentiment shows that the market is usually ready to collapse when investors get too confident about the future outlook for stocks, as they are right now. - 09-14-2009 |
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Is S&P 1,000 As Good (Or Bad) As It Gets? |
| For over 45 days the S&P 500 has now traded within 4% of the magical 1,000 mark. Any attempt to break below has been met by renewed buying. Those willing to look deeper, however, will find significant cracks in the foundation for a new bull market. Some indicators perceived to be positive, may actually turn out to be Trojan horses.
- 09-08-2009 |
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The Great Depression and Today – Sobering Parallels Abound |
| The market has been up, which puts investors in a good mood. It is this feeling of security, however, that preceded every major market meltdown. Think back to the 2000 and 2007 stock market highs and compare it today. 1929 was no different. In fact, the parallels are fear inspiringly similar. If there’s ever been a lesson to be learned from history, it’s RIGHT NOW. - 08-27-2009 |
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11 ETFs for the Dow 5,000 Portfolio |
| Dow 5,000 sounds absurd, right? That’s what people said when we foretold Dow 6,700 over two months in advance and Dow 9,000 in March 2009 when the market was at multi-decade lows. Current conditions are reminiscent of what we’ve seen in January 2009, October 2007, and April 1930. This is not the time to stick your head in the sand. - 08-25-2009 |
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Short and Leveraged ETFs – 3 Pitfalls You Shouldn’t Ignore |
| As so often in life, timing is key. The secret of many self-made millionaires is to be in the right place at the right time. More than any other strategy, investing with ETFs requires good timing and an understanding of the details that can help you identify profit centers, and money pits. Here is a five minute tutorial on how to profit with short and leveraged ETFs. - 08-19-2009 |
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Is The Worst Really Over? |
| Are you a glass half full or half empty kind of a person? More importantly, are you able to discern an empty glass? Wall Street views the stock market through “half-full goggles”, even though economic news continues to disappoint. Currently, 150 banks are at the brink of bankruptcy, the S&P’s P/E ratio is at 143, yet investors are enthusiastic. Is the worst really over? - 08-17-2009 |
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Is it Time to De-benchmark Your Portfolio? |
| Would you let your child hang out with the wrong crowd? The S&P 500 has been volatile at best and violent at worst. Why would you benchmark your financial future to volatility? Show me who your friends are and I will show you who you are, or show me what your portfolio is benchmarked to and I’ll tell you its future prospects. Is the recent rally a change for the better or just a break before the relapse? - 08-11-2009 |
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5 More Bubbles Ready to Burst |
| The old adage “there is always a bull market somewhere”, should probably be changed to “there is always a bubble somewhere.” When bubbles burst, they hurt. This is partially due to their popping with consistent unexpectedness. In fact, bubbles have perfected the science of blindsiding investors. Here are the next bubbles waiting to send portfolios into a tailspin.
- 08-07-2009 |
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Watch Out! Even This Rally Parallels The Great Depression |
| "If I would have just stayed in cash" were the thoughts of many who tried to go bargain hunting during the Great Depression. The parallels between today and the 1929-1932 meltdown are eerily similiar. This rally is nearly an exact replica of the six month, 48% rally seen in 1930. A false sense of security lead to yet another staggering loss. - 08-05-2009 |
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Is This Rally Out of Sync With The Economy? |
| Economic numbers continue to disappoint, while the stock market extends its rally. This discrepancy between reality and perception is unhealthy and can’t endure for much longer. Either the stock market bull or economy bear will prevail, as a bull and bear cannot coexist at the same time…… and the winner is …
- 08-03-2009 |
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Is Now A Good Time To Exit From Buy-and Hold Investing? |
| Never change a winning team … but what about a losing strategy? Buy-and hold investing, with or without dollar cost averaging, has been a losing proposition for over a decade. Is the market’s rally an indication that buy-and hold is back in style or is it your final chance to sell-and stay put? Extraordinary events require extraordinary actions; this might be one of those.
- 07-30-2009 |
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Is The Emerging Markets Rally Sustainable? |
| The parallels between the 2007 market top and today’s investment environment are eerily similar. Emerging markets outperformed U.S. stocks by 30% then and do so again today. Credit is being pumped in the system and China’s economy seems to be the key to new prosperity. According to history and many other indicators, your portfolio is in serious danger.
- 07-28-2009 |
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Dow 10,000 Yes - But At What Cost? |
| The 42% rally from the March lows either means that a new bull market has started or that stocks have become really bloated. Recent earnings surprises support the bullish case. The reality behind the numbers however paints a bleak picture. Are you pushing your luck by staying in the market? - 07-21-2009 |
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Crude Oil's Collapse Is Coming |
| What factors will lead crude oil pricing in the future? Supply/Demand, Correlation, Deflation, Reinvestment, Capacity, Contango, and several others discussed. - 07-21-2009 |
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