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 Research |
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Shipping Index Hits New Low for the Year |
| The Baltic Dry Index has turned down sharply in the last month. A drop in this measure of international dry bulk shipping indicates slowing manufacturing activity and is a negative for the global economy. - 06-28-2010 |
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G-20's Toothless Deficit Reduction Goals |
| The G-20 met over the weekend and set deficit reduction goals that it would like its members to meet. There is little weight behind enforcing the proposed targets, which are fairly minimal as is. - 06-28-2010 |
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Stocks Drop as New Credit Crisis Continues |
| U.S. stocks had a big sell off on Tuesday after June consumer confidence fell sharply. Weakness in the eurozone is still rattling the markets as well. The liklihood of a double dip recession continues to increase and stocks are about to give a bear market trading signal. - 06-26-2010 |
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Financial Reform Bill Won't Prevent Another Crisis |
| Details of the Financial Reform bill have finally been worked out, leaving the legislation fairly impotent. Critics claim new rules wouldn't have prevented the Credit Crisis meltdown in 2008 and won't prevent a future similar problem either. As senators put the final touches on the bill, significant financial issues still exist in Europe and the U.S. stock market continues to deteriorate. - 06-25-2010 |
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When Even Bernanke Sees Red Flags |
| The fate of the economy is "unusally uncertain." That's the assessment of Fed Chief Bernanke. That doesn't sound too optimistic from a man that's notoriously positive and upbeat. - 06-25-2010 |
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Bull Market Fading with U.S. Economy |
| U.S markets are in sell off mode once again as problems in Greece resurface. Economic numbers remain unimpressive with new home sales falling off a cliff and durable goods down 1.1% in May. The technical picture for stocks is deteriorating and it looks like a bear market trading signal will be given next week. - 06-24-2010 |
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Is The Market Tipping Over? |
| After pushing into a cluster of resistance, the major indexes reversed course and traded down from Monday on. Does that mean that the bear market is resuming? Did we just witness the biggest sucker rally of all times? Here are three identifying marks of a sucker rally. - 06-24-2010 |
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Fed's June Meeting Statement Very Negative |
| There was a big contrast between April and June's FOMC statements. The Fed made a number of admissions in the June statement that the U.S. economy was deteriorating, although it made some attempt to sugar coat this message. New Homes sales were released before the meeting and they dropped a whopping 33%, falling to a record low. - 06-23-2010 |
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What Wall Street Doesn't Know Yet |
| Until Monday’s intraday sell off, a six-day rally has lifted the major markets by about 7%. Does this mean a bottom is in? This article takes a look at factors that haven’t been detected by Wall Street’s radar screen and might very well be the canary in the coal mine. - 06-22-2010 |
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Investors Should Prepare for a Double-Dip |
| Evidence continues to mount for a double-dip recession. 'Existing Homes Sales' was the latest economic report to disappoint. The UK just announced severe spending cuts and big taxes increases. The ECRI's weekly leading indicator was a -5.7% last week. Copper, the most economically sensitive of all commodities is in a confirmed sell off. - 06-22-2010 |
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Should the World Follow Europe's Economic Lead? |
| European countries are raising taxes and cutting spending and trying to get the rest of the world to follow along. Proposals for this and an international financial transaction tax will be made at the G-20 meeting in late June. - 06-21-2010 |
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Gold, Euro, Stocks Bullish, But Copper Bearish |
| It was a good week in general for most asset classes. Gold led the way by hitting an all-time new high. U.S. stocks rallied around the same amount as gold though. The euro had a nice rally, while the dollar sold off. Oil rallied the most of all. Copper sold off however and its chart is forming a bearish trading pattern. A downturn in copper potentially bodes ill for the economy. - 06-18-2010 |
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It Will Be Worse Than a Double Dip |
| A year ago, Wall Street foresaw a second Great Depression. A month ago, Wall Street saw a V-shaped recovery. Today, a double dip recovery is not out of the question. Isn’t it time to formulate an outlook that doesn’t change on a whim? - 06-18-2010 |
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Despite Economy, Market Still Trying to Rally |
| Stocks have been rallying the last few days for technical reasons. The news however continues to indicate an economy that is weakening and a global financial system in trouble. It is likely the bad news will eventually win out. - 06-17-2010 |
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Bears - Is It Time To Throw In The Towel? |
| After a month of losses, the market is rallying again. Is this the first leg towards new highs or the market's attempt to squeeze out the bears before resuming the downtrend? - 06-17-2010 |
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Does Housing Drop Indicate Recession? |
| The number of houses under contruction has fallen to an all-time low. Permits are the lowest in a year. Housing activity has dropped so much because a federal government subsidy expired in April. Even with all the money the federal government has pumped into the market, construction is still 70% below the peak level. - 06-16-2010 |
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Early Summer Rally Looks Likely |
| The major crises driving the market in the spring have yet to be resolved, but stocks are likely to rally now because they are oversold. Since the long-term picture has yet to improve, trading should be done with a short-term perspective. - 06-15-2010 |
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Three Views of Inflation's Future |
| There is a raging ongoing debate between whether or not deflation or inflation is going to take place. Some varying blogger views supporting the case for inflation are explored by examining biflation, stagflation, ordinary and sudden hyperinflation. - 06-14-2010 |
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Financials – A Ticking Time-Bomb |
| All is well as long as stocks are on the rise. With the relentless uptrend broken or close to being broken, it makes sense to look at what could drive stocks lower. A closer look at financials shows they are a time-bomb waiting to go off. - 06-11-2010 |
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May Retail Sales Disappoint Bullish Analysts |
| May Retail Sales dropped 1.2%. Analysts had expected an increase, which was reasonable considering all the fiscal stimulus the federal government is pumping into the economy. Consumers can't spend more though unless they have more income and credit. This will require an improvement in the jobs markets and more bank lending, neither of which is taking place. - 06-11-2010 |
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Hyperinflation Can Not Just Happen, But Can Be Sudden |
| Most market observers are currently worried more about deflation rather than inflation. A new theory though explains how hyperinflation is not only currently possible, but could take place overnight. - 06-10-2010 |
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Out of Touch Bernanke Testifies on Capitol Hill |
| Ben Bernake testified on Capitol Hill and stated the reduced government spending wouldn't hurt the U.S. economy. The federal deficit is estimated at $1.1 trillion for fiscal year 2011, so spending is still at record levels. Up to now though there has been little evidence the government has gotten much for its money. Housing has barely improved and no noticeable improvement in the job market has taken place. - 06-09-2010 |
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Beware of Fake Rallies |
| A month ago, the Dow gained 405 points in one day. Over the past three trading days, however, the Dow has lost 537 points and is close to the lowest point in over six months. Is this an opportunity to buy or is it time to get out? - 06-08-2010 |
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Market Questions Bernanke's Credibility |
| Fed chair Ben Bernanke made bullish remarks on the U.S. economy on June 7th. Stocks have been selling off strongly lately, indicating the markets have a different view. - 06-08-2010 |
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Current Global Sell Off Resembles 2008 |
| The current global asset sell off strongly resembles the Credit Crisis decline in 2008. Stocks are down in all major markets. Commodities are down, but gold is doing the best. Money is flowing into the safe havens, the U.S. dollar and treasuries. A short-term reversal is also likely now as happened at the end of 2008. - 06-07-2010 |
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Indicator Flashes Bear Market Warning |
| The first four trading days showed a loss for stock in both May and June. While this indicator can occasionally be negative during a bull market rally, two months in a row is a sign that a bear market trading pattern has begun. - 06-04-2010 |
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What Unemployment Means for the Stock Market |
| How things have changed. For most of 2009, the stock market rose even though unemployment figures kept deteriorating. Now, unemployment numbers are getting better but stocks are selling off. What does that tell us about what lies ahead? - 06-04-2010 |
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May Payroll Numbers Put Recovery in Doubt |
| There were 431,000 new jobs in May, but almost all of them were temporary Census positions. The extra Census jobs also caused the unemployment rate to fall to 9.7%. Private sector industries that gained jobs in March and April had some give back in May. Unemployment is likely to rise in the next several months as more than a million census positions are terminated. - 06-04-2010 |
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Wednesday's Big Rally Explained |
| U.S. stocks really took off starting at 2:20PM New York time. President Obama had just finished a major speech on the economy when the rally began. The rally had all the earmarks of a central bank liquidity injection into the financial system. Even the companies connected to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill had big moves up. - 06-03-2010 |
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How the Bear Market Fools Investors |
| Bear markets are tricky. Even though they move much faster than bull markets, they string hopeful investors along. Intermittent rallies and misleading media coverage keep unfounded hope alive. - 06-02-2010 |
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