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 Research |
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Parallels Between Stocks and The Titanic |
| Icebergs ahead was the warning the Titanic received the day and hour before its unfortunate collision. Danger ahead is the warning for investors today. Just like the Titanic, investors find the warnings rather inconvenient. How can you protect yourself without losing out on profits? - 05-04-2010 |
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Market Giving Warning Signs of a Top |
| Recent volatility in U.S. stocks is an indication of a top. There are a number of serious problems at the moment that could cause stocks to have a serious drop. Investors who want to short the market have a wide variety of ETFs available that make it easy for them to do so. - 05-04-2010 |
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Why the Gulf Spill Will Lead to Higher Oil Prices |
| The oil spill off Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico requires unprecendented measures to contain it. It likely to reduce future offshore drilling, lower supply and raise prices for oil. - 05-03-2010 |
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Q1 GDP Less Exciting Than It Appears |
| GDP was up 3.2% in the first quarter, but half of that was inventory replenishment. Consumer spending was up by 3.6% even though real disposable income was flat and consumer credit was dropping sharply during the quarter. - 04-30-2010 |
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Why the Fed Will Be on Hold Until 2011 |
| While the Fed was more upbeat about the economy, it left in its post-meeting statement that it would keep interest rates low for an extended period of time. History shows that it is not likely to start raising rates before July 2011. - 04-29-2010 |
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Market Forces EU and IMF to Bail Out Greece |
| S&P's downgrade of Greek government debt to junk status roiled market worldwide yesterday. The situation can no longer be ignored by the EU leadership and a significant aid package for Greece should be forthcoming soon. - 04-28-2010 |
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Why an Extended Bull Market is Unlikely |
| With Bernanke’s printing presses, a continued bull market is a foregone conclusion. A look at the bearish side of the ledger, however, makes a waterfall decline more likely than a black swan. Additionally, even the Fed is running out of options. Perhaps an extended bull market is the actual Black Swan. - 04-28-2010 |
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Bears, Is it Time to Throw in the Towel? |
| These are tough times for the few bears still around. The odds are that prices will go higher and convert more bears into bulls. By the time bulls outright dominate the market, the market will strike back. Is it too late now to become a bear? - 04-27-2010 |
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Ford's Earnings Not Good Enough to Keep Stock Up |
| Ford announced first quarter earnings of $2.1 billion or 50 cents a share. This isn't good enough to make up for its losses of $31.4 billion between 2006 and early 2009. The company still has a negative book value. - 04-27-2010 |
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Greece Should Leave the Currency Union, But Still Use the Euro |
| The Greek debt crisis is still roiling the markets because of lack of agreement on the aid package. The EU could protect its currency and Greece could still use the euro if they utilize dollarization. - 04-26-2010 |
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Greece Asks for Aid, But Will It Fix the Problem? |
| Problems erupted again in Greece with Moody's downgrading its debt and the EU Statistical Agency raising its estimated 2009 deficit to GDP figures. Greece is now seeking to tap a $60 billion EU IMF aid package. - 04-23-2010 |
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5 Bull Market Game Changers |
| Earnings have been great and even the Goldman Sachs investigation by the SEC has been digested with less than expected hoopla. All looks like smooth sailing ahead, or could it be the calm before the storm? Here are five game changers. - 04-23-2010 |
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Why Investors Shouldn't Blindly Follow Market Indicators |
| Some popular market indicators are flashing buy signals, but they may actually indicate that the market is dangerously overbought. - 04-22-2010 |
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Problems Return in Greece, U.S. Treasuries Troubled |
| Insurance for Greek bond reached a new high on April 21st indicating the debt crisis is not yet over. U.S. treasuries now have higher interest rates than some corporate bonds indicating problems may just be at the beginning in the U.S. - 04-21-2010 |
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Why Even Bernanke Sees Trouble Ahead |
| “Financial hero” Ben Bernanke generally has a very positive economic disposition. Rose-colored glasses initially obstructed the real extent of the post-2007 meltdown, but now even Mr. Bernanke is expressing his concerns. This should be worrisome to investors. - 04-21-2010 |
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Accounting Rules Change, Wall Street Makes Money |
| The big banks and trading houses are reporting apparently excellent earnings this quarter. Current results are taking place though because of accounting rule changes and not because of economic recovery. - 04-20-2010 |
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Not Just Financials Got Hit From Goldman's Fraud Charges |
| SEC fraud charges caused a big drop in financials stocks on Friday, but gold, gold miners, oil and technology stocks got hit too. The market was and is very vulnerable to bad news at this point. - 04-19-2010 |
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Asia Shows the Benefits and Risks of Too Much Stimulus |
| GDP growth last quarter was explosive in Singapore. It was almost 12% in China. Inflation is already showing up in China and is likely to spread throughout the region. - 04-16-2010 |
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Should You Buy the Rumor and Sell the News? |
| Following an impressive run up prior to earnings season, it is fair to ask whether investors were buying the rumor and are planning to sell on the news. - 04-15-2010 |
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Taxes, the Stock Market and the Economy |
| Capital gains tax rates have gone up and down over the last 100 years and will be rising again next year. History indicates rising capital gains rates combined with rising inflation is very negative for stocks and the economy. - 04-15-2010 |
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Intel: Earnings the Same, Stock Price Down in Last Decade |
| Intel's first quarter earnings were greeted with great enthusiam from the market. They are the same as they were 10 years ago however, while the stock price has been cut by two-thirds. - 04-14-2010 |
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Reasons Why the Stock Market Could be at a Top |
| Investors have become very bullish on the stock market and when this happens a top isn't usually far behind. - 04-13-2010 |
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Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? |
| Stocks are getting a bit frothy after a 13 month rally. Sentiment is getting too bullish and investors too complacent. Why this may indicate a possible crash this fall. - 04-12-2010 |
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Does a Slow Uptrend Precurse a Fast Decline? |
| It’s been 2½ months since the S&P has closed down more than two consecutive days. For nearly the same length of time, the S&P 500 hasn’t lost more than 1%. This streak is not only unusual, it’s eerie. But what does it mean? - 04-12-2010 |
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Euro May Have Seen Its Low for Greek Crisis |
| Renewed talk of a possible default of Greek debt has roiled the markets once again, but the euro did not hit a new low against the dollar, indicating it might have put in a short-term bottom. - 04-09-2010 |
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Is The New Bull Market For Real? |
| Is it too late to buy stocks? That’s literally the million-dollar question. Knowing whether we are in a new bull market or a counter trend rally will answer this question. A look at various indicators shows whether we are in a new bull market. - 04-09-2010 |
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Economics Forcing China to Abandon Currency Peg |
| Reports indicate that China is about to abandon the renimbi's fixed peg to the dollar. The U.S. has been demanding the change, but economic forces are more likely the driving force behind it. - 04-08-2010 |
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The Good News on Retail Sales May Not be So Good |
| March retail sales are predicted to up 8% to 10% in March, but upbeat reports in the past haven't always been bullish going forward. - 04-07-2010 |
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Oil and Treasury Markets Indicate Inflation is a Problem |
| The government claims there is no inflation, but the markets disagree. - 04-06-2010 |
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ISM Reports Indicate Inflation More Significant than Growth |
| Top component in March ISM reports has been the inflation indicator. - 04-05-2010 |
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