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 Research |
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Could the Government Prevent Another Major Collapse? |
| After the first major bailout, stocks tumbled 30%; after the second, 15%. Dozens of bailouts later, stocks are nearing their fall 2008 levels. Are the government’s initiatives potent enough to avert another major collapse? - 12-17-2009 |
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Market Doomed? 401k Plans Sail Calmly |
| The public remains indifferent to predictions of market doom. - 12-16-2009 |
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What Will Happen After The Year-End Rally? |
| Last year’s Santa Claus and year-end rally lifted the major U.S. indexes by nearly 10%. But what happened thereafter? The market crashed 30% in less than 90 days. Unlike last year, stocks rallied 65% into December. The potential for a major decline is even bigger today than it was 12 month ago. - 12-14-2009 |
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Will a Rising Dollar Wreak Havoc For Stocks and Gold? |
| For several months, the U.S. dollar has been the lynchpin for other asset classes. Courtesy of a falling dollar, gold and stocks have continued to climb. But what if the dollar gathers steam? In fact, the dollar has broken a major barrier and appears to be moving up. - 12-09-2009 |
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What Really Happened In Dubai? |
| There is much more to the “Dubai episode” than meets the eye. Did you know that the market’s decline was nearly one day delayed and that the worst piece of news was actually met with rising prices? What’s the real meaning of the market’s reaction to Dubai’s problems? - 12-08-2009 |
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Below 50-Day MA – Will Financials Drag The Market Lower? |
| Many view the 200-day moving average as the holy grail of investing while others use it as just one component of a balanced approach. Regardless of which category you fall into, the MA for a leading sector – financials – has given a sell signal. A look at other indicators doesn’t bode well either. - 12-08-2009 |
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Deal or No Deal – Should You Buy in or Cash Out? |
| Behind the facade of every portfolio a secret tug of war is going on – a battle of risk and reward, greed and modesty. At a time when the market has stalled at S&P 1,110 and Dow 10,500, with signs of weakness becoming more pronounced, it’s time to ask the tough questions – Deal or No Deal? - 12-04-2009 |
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Is it Too Late to Buy? |
| There’s a party on Wall Street. Everyone’s invited to join and buy stocks, gold, silver and everything else. If you don’t join, you are probably considered the oddball out. But can you still join the party without risking a major hangover?
- 12-02-2009 |
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After A 60 % Rally – Are Stocks Overvalued? |
| More investors are willing to buy stocks at Dow 10,000 than they were at Dow 7,000. After a 60% rally, shouldn’t valuations become a concern? This article dissects the different forms of P/E ratios and its significance in pin-pointing a market bottom. - 11-27-2009 |
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Remember The Bank Stress Test? The Worst-Case Scenario is Here! |
| Time heals all wounds they say. How about rising stocks? After a 65% rally hardly anyone remembers, let alone cares about, what happened half a year ago – the bank stress test. Does the fact that the worst-case scenario has already been met spell trouble for stocks? - 11-24-2009 |
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Weighing The Facts: Will The Next Leg Be Up or Down? |
| It’s easy to get side-tracked by the news investors are bombarded with every day. One day the news is positive, the next it’s negative. This article shows how to cut to the chase rather than subjecting yourself to this emotional, and financial, rollercoaster. - 11-20-2009 |
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Real Estate In Trouble – Could A 2008-Like Decline Be Next? |
| With stocks up most of the time, it takes a keen eye to see what’s going on behind the facade of rising prices. Real estate is once again in trouble. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA all need money, prices are down and real estate ETFs have already started their very own bear market. Will it be 2008 all over again? - 11-18-2009 |
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Stocks Are Up - But For Some Key Sectors The Bear Market Has Already Begun |
| The major indexes a la S&P 500 and Dow Jones may be up, but other sectors of major importance to the U.S. economy and stock market’s overall health are not. In fact, there are disturbing signs that the market is overextended and running on borrowed time. - 11-16-2009 |
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How Far Can This Rally Go? |
| Back in March, no one believed in a major market rally. Eight months and 65% later, everyone believes the recession is over and higher prices are ahead. This article takes a look at the different stages of a rally and explains a behavior that is indicative of a disintegrating rally. - 11-12-2009 |
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Up or Down - Which Sector Will Lead The Market? |
| Behind a solid looking facade, the market is showing cracks. Real estate peaked in September, financials and banks in October, and the Dow in November. Gold is at an all-time high, while silver, an economically more sensitive metal, is 20% below its all-time high. What does the fractured nature of the market mean and which sector will benefit, or suffer first? - 11-10-2009 |
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Should You Buy on Dips or Sell Into Rallies? |
| The unemployment announcement and other news reports have been causing a lot of up-and down swings in the market. Are dips good opportunities to buy stocks, or rallies good opportunities to sell. A look at some short-and long-term indicators provides the answer. - 11-06-2009 |
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How to Replace Lost Dividend Income |
| No one makes a big deal about it, but dividend yields are the lowest they’ve been in a while. Among other things, a market in rally mode has covered up the fact that more companies than ever before have cut dividend payments. Is this trend here to stay? What can you do about it? - 11-04-2009 |
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Economists Say: The Recession is Over! Why This Outlook is Worrysome |
| 80% of economist are now saying that the recession is over. This sounds good, but where were such predictions in March before the monster rally started? Investors willing to dig deeper will find that the economist’s optimism, may actually be a sign for more trouble ahead. - 11-02-2009 |
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Are You Ready for What’s Coming, Uncle Sam? |
| A Century ago Uncle Sam asked the nation, ‘are you prepared’? Today, with growing bank failures, mounting debt, and rising unemployment we return the question, ‘are you prepared for what’s coming, Uncle Sam’? - 10-30-2009 |
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What's Next - Minor Correction or Major Collapse? |
| Over the past few months, every attempt by the bears to depress prices has been met with renewed buying pressure, resulting in even higher prices. What goes up, however, has to come down and some subtle signs are indicating that this decline might be more than a simple correction, much more. - 10-27-2009 |
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5 Disturbing Facts For The Bulls |
| The Dow’s push beyond 10,000 has covered up many of the disturbing numbers floating around. Of course Wall Street doesn’t mind you thinking that everything is all right. For those willing to read between the lines, this article provides some serious food for thought. - 10-23-2009 |
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Bulls or Bears – Who Will Have The Last Laugh? |
| There seems to be a tug of war between bulls and bears, up and down. Based on current sentiment readings, the stakes are high, a major turning point seems to be ahead, and you certainly would not want to be caught on the wrong side of what’s about to happen. - 10-21-2009 |
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11 ETFs You Shouldn’t Own |
| Some indexes have rallied 70% in seven months. The time for easy profits is certainly over. No winning streak lasts forever and savvy investors need to know when to hold’em and when to fold’em. The upside potential for many ETFs is close to zero. Here’s a list of ETFs likely to check out early and fall harder and faster than the rest. - 10-19-2009 |
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Are Stocks Ripe For Another Black Monday? |
| All Black Mondays – there were three - have one thing in common: They occurred in October and they came unannounced. If you are thinking that a Black Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or any other black day is unlikely, keep in mind that “black” strikes when least expected. - 10-13-2009 |
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Allow Me to Introduce: The Biggest Sucker Rally Since The Great Depression |
| A 50% rally, Warren Buffett, extreme levels of optimism, rallies based on vague reports of improvements, etc.; all the aforementioned are parallels between the 1929-1930 bear market rally and the rally from the March lows. If the parallels hold up, a mere rhyme to history (let alone a repeat), will wipe out millions of next eggs. Here’s how to avoid repeating your grand parent’s mistakes. - 10-07-2009 |
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Why Dow 10,000 Will Remain Untouched For Years |
| Dow 10,000 has once again captured the attention of investors. Some believe that a breach of this magical level will set the stage for even higher prices, while others think Dow 10,000 will be nothing more than a “group-hug.” Regardless, Dow 10,000 is a foregone conclusion which should make the savvy investor suspicious. In fact, Dow 10,000 is unlikely to happen anytime soon. - 10-05-2009 |
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Is Reality Finally Catching Up With Stocks? |
| What goes up must come down, so says an old Wall Street adage. Stocks have rallied 50% in six months and have come too far too fast. You may not be surprised to hear that stocks are currently overvalued, but did you know that stocks were overvalued even at the March lows? If you think that a significant decline is implied, you are correct. - 09-29-2009 |
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$1,000/oz Gold – New Reality or New Bubble? |
| Many believe a gold bubble is impossible. That sounds reasonable, but did you think an oil bubble was possible. Oil, just like gold, is a limited natural resource. About a year ago, oil was trading at $149/barrel.
Within less than a year, oil prices tumbled to $35/barrel. Investor sentiment and a strengthening dollar point towards lower gold prices as well, but how low? - 09-25-2009 |
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Is The Rally Over? |
| Selective short-term memory loss is a dangerous condition for investors. Relentless has been the rally from the March lows but relentless were also the losses from the 2007 highs. The decline from yesterday's intraday highs marks the biggest 2-day decline of this rally. Momentum has turned negative. Is this rally over? - 09-24-2009 |
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3 Facts That Should Worry The Bulls |
| Are you afraid of modern-day ghost ships? You should be. Hundreds of high seas freighters are anchored close to Singapore’s shoreline. Despite an allegedly improving economy, these giants of the seas are idle, waiting for orders. In some twisted way, these ghost ships might be today’s version of the Trojan horse. And guess what, an economic recovery is not what’s hiding in the giant hull. - 09-23-2009 |
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