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Can Commodity ETFs Recession Proof Your Portfolio?
Can Commodity ETFs Recession Proof Your Portfolio?
By, Delbert Thiessen
Apr 10, 2008
Commodity markets are swooning as the economy stutters. Long-term trends are unmistakable. Increased demands for hard products, energy, and food, and growing and emerging populations will inevitably push commodity prices higher.
 

Many investors share the Malthusian view that...

“The power of population is so superior to the power of the Earth to produce subsistence for man that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race". Thomas Malthus, 1798

 

Relating to commodity ETFs, I am wondering: Everything that sustains life – commodities, energy, arable land, and water – is potentially limited and therefore destined to push global thirst for life to the extreme. Today the market value of commodities is skidding downward, but because of growing populations and increasing demands for hard assets, the slide is only temporary.

 

The ultimate market consequences of expanding demands and diminishing supplies are increased prices. The long-term climb in commodity prices is evident in the CRB Spot Index of prices for 22 commodities, including oil and gas, gold and silver, wheat and corn, cattle and hogs, and coffee and sugar (iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (Ticker: GSG) tracks the performance of 24 different commodities).

 

ETF Investors are on the lookout for megatrends like this. In fact, the entire edifice of Wall Street is based on long-term supply-and-demand equations. Investor interest in short-term goals, may account for current trends, but it is extended market growth that fuels economic trends.

 

Fortunately for the investor, we now have over 50 commodity ETFs that cover the spectrum of global demands. There are approximately 12 funds for oil and other forms of energy, an equal number for precious and industrial metals, and at least nine for agricultural products and services, and many others that fall under the heading of natural resources

 

The classical commodities for energy, metals, and agriculture have on the average increased in price during the last year by about 17%.

Performance measures for these can easily be found online such as at the ETF database.

 

The composite list of the most traded commodity ETFs is given below.

 

Not all commodity ETFs are created equal in quality, cost, or performance. In total, however, they represent a New Wave of investment opportunity that emerged with the inception of broad and focused ETFs.

In a later report I will isolate those ETFs that in my opinion offer the greatest possibilities for superior performance. Many should prove superior in performance to the usual market index, the S&P 500.

Most Active ETFs/ETNs - Broad Commodity:

 

Name

Ticker

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust

GSG

iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return

DJP

 

                                                                         Agriculture:

Name

Ticker

PowerShares DB Agriculture

DBA

MarketVectors Global Agribusinesses

JLG

iPath DJ AIG Grains

JJG

iPath DJ AIG Agriculture

JJA

iPath DJ AIG Livestock

COW

ELEMENTS Rogers Agriculture

RJA

ELEMENTS MLCX Biofuels

FUE

ELEMENTS MLCX Grains

GRU

Opta Lehman Bros Pure Beta Agriculture

EOH

 

                                                                            Energy

 

Name

Ticker

iShares Dow Jones Oil & Gas

IEO

iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil

OIL

United States Oil Fund

USO

PowerShares DB Oil Fund

DBO

PowerShares DB Energy Fund

DBE

United States Natural Gas Fund

UNG

Oil Services HOLDERS

OIH

iPath DJ AIG Natural Gas

GAZ

ELEMENTS Rogers Energy

RJN

United States Oil

USL

Claymore MACROshares Oil Down

DCR

Claymore MACROshares Oil UP

UCR

 

                                                                             Metals

Name

Ticker

iShares Comex Gold Trust

IAU

iShares Silver Trust

SLV

Street Tracks Gold Trust

GLD

PowerShares DB Gold Fund

DGL

PowerShares DB Precious Metals

DBP

PowerShares DB Silver

DBS

PowerShares DB Base Metals

DBB

iPath DJ AIG Copper

JJC

iPath DJ AIG Nickel

JJN

iPath DJ AIG Industrials Metals

JJM

ELEMENTS Rogers Metals

RJZ

                                                                                                                                           
                                                                              >> ETFs vs. ETNs
 

 

The list would be more complete if it contained those ETFs that cover solar, wind, and water, as well as other “green” forms of energy production. Broad commodity demands are creating a multi-level market opportunity.

 

My next article will deal with the recent sell off in commodities and whether this is just a natural correction or the start of a down trend.

 

Set alert for my next article:

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 Author Profile
Bullet Delbert Thiessen
  Agave Publishers LLC
  Editor
  Thiessen is a newsletter writer and publisher of ETF Perspective, a monthly report on megatrend investing using domestic and foreign ETFs. Dr. Thiessen is a Ph.D. and Professor Emeritus in Psychology with a research specialization in Evolutionary Psychology. He has studied social behavior in humans and other animals. Beginning in 2000, he applies the principles of evolution and behavior to systems of stock market investing, attempting to help investors make profitable selections of ETFs that reflect long-term social and economic trends. Building long-range and profitable portfolios is his immediate objective; helping investors analyze the market and apply psychological principles to investing is his continuing objective.
  http://www.agavepublishers.com
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