China

What’s Ahead for the Oil and Metals Markets?

The energy market has seen some record breaking moves in 2020.  Never mind how the May 2020 crude oil contract went $37 negative, the magnitude of the ups and downs has been off the charts. In our latest analysis at ETFguide TV, John Love the CEO at USCF Investments provides historical context. Love points out …

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Should You Hedge Currency Risk?

Currency prices go up, they go down, and sometimes they crash. And just like other financial markets, currency prices are not immune to volatility. Should you be hedging your portfolio against currency volatility? Chaos Happens The first argument in favor of currency hedged investments is that chaos happens. It can occur at any time in any …

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(Podcast) The $700 Million Man Who Lost His Fortune

What’s hot and what’s not? The chart below shows that U.S stocks (NYSEARCA:SPY) are still outperforming other asset categories like bonds (NYSEARCA:BND), global real estate (NYSEARCA:RWO), and gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) this year.  Stock market fear is contained and the VIX – a popular barometer of sentiment –  has declined around 30% year-to-date. In terms of S&P 500 industry …

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Grading Retirement Plan

(Podcast) What’s the Right Way to Measure Your Portfolio’s Progress?

Can you believe it? The year 2015 is already half over. As second quarter investment account statements arrive, now is the time to un-distract yourself and focus on what’s impacting the performance of your money. Get Your Portfolio Checklist Why do so many people ignore their investment portfolio? Is it because they’re afraid to look inside? …

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Falling Bricks

Don’t Get Hit By a Falling BRIC

A credit bubble (China), inflation (Brazil), and the threat of war (Russia) have made BRICs a dangerous place to invest. Is the worst over? “BRIC” is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, and China that was introduced in 2001. Enthusiasm for investing in stocks from BRIC nations rose in the mid-2000s as mega-emerging markets outperformed …

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Frontier Markets: Investors Double Up on Risk

Money is flowing out of risky emerging market stocks (NYSEARCA:VWO), and guess where it’s going? Into even riskier frontier market debt and stocks (NasdaqGIDS:PMNA). The Economist reports: “Investors in America and Europe were hungry to buy dollar-denominated debt offering juicy yields. Zambia drew $12 billion of orders for a ten-year bond paying only 5.4%. Pension-fund …

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Are Chinese Stocks Really a Bargain?

Chinese stocks are the bargain of a lifetime. That’s what pundits from Goldman Sachs to analysts at major media outlets have been reporting. Are they right? The resurgence of borrowing money, led by world governments, has pushed global debt levels up 40% from $70 trillion in 2007 to around $100 trillion today. And while the …

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Chinese Stocks are a Wonderful Value Trap

When it comes to properly assessing China’s stock market, are financial experts bad or just blind? Here’s what they’ve been saying: Buck the Trend, Buy Chinese Stocks – Forbes, Jim Oberweis, 7/9/13 Huge Reforms in China Could Lead to Big Upside for Top Chinese Stocks – 247wallst, 11/19/13 It’s Time to Buy China – MarketWatch, …

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The First Inning of China’s Bear Market

Never mind China’s reputation for cooking the books; its raw uncooked economic data is sagging. China’s unexpected drop of 18.1% for February exports was the biggest decline in Chinese exports in almost five years and its biggest trade deficit ($23 billion) in two years. (Analysts, that over-optimistic bunch, had forecasted a 7.5% rise.) In January, …

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Russia Isn’t Only Trouble Spot for Emerging Markets

As if war between Russia and Ukraine wasn’t bad enough, emerging market stocks (NYSEARCA:BKF) are still dealing with two other major problems: China’s unfolding credit crisis and Latin America’s currency and political turmoil. Russia’s president Vladimir Putin said that Russian troops have the right to invade Ukraine, setting up the possibility for combat between the …

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China’s Busted Bank Loans Hit 2008 Crisis Levels

Depending on whom you believe, China is either on the verge of economic utopia or a major economic shock. And the data is leaning toward the latter. Non-performing loans made by Chinese banks soared to $97.5 billion in the final three months of last year, according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission. That matches levels …

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Emerging Market Stocks: Bargain or Value Trap?

I was recently lectured on Twitter by a Wall Street strategist about why emerging market stocks (NYSEARCA:EEM) are a raging buy. Among his top arguments for being and staying long were extremely negative sentiment and chart patterns. He was particularly adamant about “depressed values” in Chinese stocks. Interestingly, the view among other strategists that emerging …

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Will Shadow Banking Take Down China?

To China, shadow banking has been both a blessing and a curse. It’s been a blessing, because it’s created an immediate steroids like impact on China’s economy of  falsified strength and growth. It’s been a curse, because the art of gaming economic growth through credit expansion never has a pretty Hollywood ending. In China, credit …

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