Sentiment Analysis

Experts Get the Gold Market Wrong (again)

Two questions: How wrong have experts been about the gold market this year? And how much money has their bad advice cost people? Let’s tackle the first question, by extracting and analyzing some recent headlines: “Gold Miners Fail to Launch” – Forbes, 5/14/14 “Gold Vulnerable to Manipulative Selloff in June” – Max Keiser, 5/30/14 “Why …

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How to Improve Your Investment Performance by Playing Defense

“The best defense is a good offense.” That axiom has been applied in a broad array of fields including politics, sports, and the military. The 1985 Chicago Bears are still regarded as one of the NFL’s best defensive teams ever. Not only did they lead the league in defenses that score, but the Bears defensive …

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Don’t Make These Widespread Mutual Fund Mistakes!

“People should only buy mutual funds with experienced portfolio managers that have good long-term track records.” “Investing in highly rated mutual funds with at least 4 or 5 stars is a sure-fire way to choose the best fund.” “Our firm screens thousands of mutual funds to help our clients find funds and managers that have …

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Gold and Silver Bars

How to Print Money in the Psychotic Gold Market

The gold market is the epitome of human psychosis.* On one hand, there’s the anti-gold camp that have utter disdain for precious metals 24 hours a day, eight days a week. On the other hand, there are the survivalist types, general goldbugs, and anti-Fed clan who live, breath, and eat gold at any price. Together, …

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Gambling Roulette

What Does a Professional Gambler’s Investment Portfolio Look Like?

I’ve always wondered what a professional gambler’s portfolio would look like. Would it be a broadly diversified portfolio of penny stocks with a Kenny Rogers box set and a shot of whiskey to boot? Or perhaps, it would contain none of these worldly possessions. How would a gambler invest his or her winnings? I recently …

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Industry Sectors

3 Industry Sectors Vital to the Stock Market’s Health

Performance divergences, especially in key industry sectors, are either supportive or non-supportive of the broader stock market’s move. Although the S&P 500 (SNP:^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) have notched new highs this year, small cap stock ETFs linked to the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) and S&P SmallCap 600 (NYSEARCA:IJR) continue to lag. The fact …

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Why Do So Many Investors Self-Destruct?

“The investor’s chief problem—and even his worst enemy—is likely to be himself,” once quipped the great Benjamin Graham. The truth of Graham’s observation is seen in the consistent pattern of mutual fund investors to self-destruct. AUDIO: Listen to Ron DeLegge @ The Index Investing Show Over the past 30 years, the typical stock mutual fund investor’s performance has …

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BBQ Grill 2

Treasury Bonds Sizzle, High Tech Fizzles

What do you get when you add up Twitter, Yelp, and Weibo? Answer: Deflation. That’s the latest joke as former high-flying tech stocks fizzle, while Treasury bonds sizzle. Over the past several weeks we’ve seen a major shift in the market’s psychology away from risky equity bets. And as these high risk/high beta equity segments …

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Ocean Waves

Is Stock Market Volatility Increasing?

Is stock market volatility rising or falling? For most of this year, stock market volatility has actually outperformed the stock market itself. But for whatever reason, it’s an unpopular narrative that’s been and continues to be ignored by the mainstream media. The chart below illustrates the relationship between stocks and volatility in 2014. You’ll notice how the S&P …

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Corporate America’s Late Cycle Behavior

The pace of U.S. merger and acquisition (M&A) activity has erupted. Bankers and lawyers love it because it gives them work. And investors of the targeted companies love it so long as the buyout premium hovers between juicy and ridiculous. What does the velocity of M&A deals tell us about the state of the stock market? During the …

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Baron Rothschild

What Would Baron Rothschild Say about Russian Stocks?

Russia is in deep trouble. Never mind that it’s on the brink of full-blown war with Ukraine. International sanctions were just imposed against 17 companies with close ties to President Vladmir Putin, and even more severe penalties are in the works. A poll of economists by a large media enterprise* found that Russia faces a …

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Financial Geek

Stock Prices Are Cheap! Valuation Geeks Get it Wrong Again

“Stocks are cheap by historical standards” is the latest fiction being promoted by valuation geeks. Is it true? Meb Faber, proprietor of the Cambria Global Value ETF (NYSEARCA:GVAL), and a valuation guru tweeted the 5-year CAPE ratio for the usually frothy technology sector (NYSEARCA:XLK) is just 22 today compared to an elevated 96 at the height …

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Gold and Silver Bars

Gold vs. Silver: Is the Ratio Bullish or Bearish?

The gold/silver ratio has been on a fierce bullish run, what does it mean? This ratio measures the relative strength of gold compared to silver and is calculated by dividing one ounce of gold’s current price by one ounce of silver’s price. The gold/silver ratio boils down to how many ounces of silver you could …

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Has Momentum Investing Lost its Mojo?

Former high flying industry sectors like biotech (NASDAQGIDS:IBB) and social media stocks (NYSEARCA:SOCL) have crashed between 14-16% over the past month. Have hot momentum stocks lost their mojo? One proxy of momentum stocks is the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Index ETF (NYSEARCA:MTUM). The fund owns 100-150 large and mid-cap U.S. stocks that are screened for …

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Poof! S&P 500 Erases YTD Gains

Was the S&P 500 the last proverbial man standing? Today’s -2.09% clobbering officially wiped out the S&P 500’s (NYSEARCA:IVV) YTD gain.  Put another way, three-months of gains were lost in single trading session! (See chart below) The swift decline doesn’t come as a surprise to our readers, as we’ve been warning about the stock market’s …

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Fireworks 1

Ready for the Next Surge in Volatility?

Is another surge in stock market fear and volatility ahead? Will you be ready when it happens? “Public psychology is the most important single factor in shaping security markets,” said Gerald Loeb. Loeb was right and that’s why we make it a regular habit at ETFguide to track movements and trading opportunities in the CBOE …

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Have Precious Metals Seen Their 2014 Peak?

After posting its first monthly decline of 2014, gold now trades near 7-week lows and the charts are looking ugly. As readers familiar with our research know, last year we were consistently bearish on gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) and precious metals (NYSEARCA:SLV) along with mining stocks (NYSEARCA:GDX). Last year, our largest ETF gainer was the Feb. 2013 …

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Chinese Stocks are a Wonderful Value Trap

When it comes to properly assessing China’s stock market, are financial experts bad or just blind? Here’s what they’ve been saying: Buck the Trend, Buy Chinese Stocks – Forbes, Jim Oberweis, 7/9/13 Huge Reforms in China Could Lead to Big Upside for Top Chinese Stocks – 247wallst, 11/19/13 It’s Time to Buy China – MarketWatch, …

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Stock Market Fear is Tapering, Greed is Back

The stock market’s wild mood swings from fear to greed and back are in full swing again. And this time around, the investing public’s fear of missing out on potential stock gains is greater than its fear of losing money. The latest Fear and Greed Index shows that stock market greed is now at extreme …

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