Sentiment Analysis

Russia Isn’t Only Trouble Spot for Emerging Markets

As if war between Russia and Ukraine wasn’t bad enough, emerging market stocks (NYSEARCA:BKF) are still dealing with two other major problems: China’s unfolding credit crisis and Latin America’s currency and political turmoil. Russia’s president Vladimir Putin said that Russian troops have the right to invade Ukraine, setting up the possibility for combat between the …

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Will Dividend Yields Test ’99 Lows?

The past six years have been brutal for dividend and income investors. Zero percent interest rates have depressed bond yields (NYSEARCA:BOND) and with major stock indexes (^DJI) now trading at all-time highs, dividend yields relative to prices have fallen too. Last year, the number of S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) stocks paying a dividend touched a 17-year …

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Valuation Models Say Stock Market Losses Ahead

Overpaying for anything is a bad idea. But it’s an especially bad thing when it comes to investing in the stock market. James Montier at GMO correctly observes: “Over the years I’ve witnessed many attempts by the practitioners of this most dark art to justify why tried and tested measures of valuation are no longer …

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Is this the Weakest Bull Market in History?

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one,” said Charles MacKay in his classic book the Madness of Crowds. A closer examination of the U.S. stock market’s (NasdaqGM:QQQ) action shows how the herd is …

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China’s Busted Bank Loans Hit 2008 Crisis Levels

Depending on whom you believe, China is either on the verge of economic utopia or a major economic shock. And the data is leaning toward the latter. Non-performing loans made by Chinese banks soared to $97.5 billion in the final three months of last year, according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission. That matches levels …

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Emerging Markets and Parallels to the pre-2008 Crash

Are there parallels between the pre-2008 U.S. stock market crash and emerging markets today? Emerging market bulls (NYSEARCA:EDC) say that cheap market valuations are a reason to own stocks from countries like China (NYSEARCA:FXI), Brazil (NYSEARCA:EWZ), Russia (NYSEARCA:RSX), and India (NYSEARCA:EPI). Are they right? AUDIO: Listen to Ron DeLegge @ The Index Investing Show A …

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Who Turned Up the (Trading) Volume?

Price changes in the stock market occur on all-time scales. From a tick in milliseconds all the way to decades and even centuries, prices have a certain pattern. And behind all these constantly influx price changes is trading volume. Why does it matter? Trading volume refers to the number of shares or contracts traded in …

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Emerging Market Stocks: Bargain or Value Trap?

I was recently lectured on Twitter by a Wall Street strategist about why emerging market stocks (NYSEARCA:EEM) are a raging buy. Among his top arguments for being and staying long were extremely negative sentiment and chart patterns. He was particularly adamant about “depressed values” in Chinese stocks. Interestingly, the view among other strategists that emerging …

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This Seasonal Trend has been a Slam Dunk

In the winter it snows and in the spring flowers bloom.  It’s one of those things you can always count on. And like nature, the stock market, has its own set of yearly trends. One of the market’s strongest seasonal forces that has been a slam dunk this year is something called the “January Effect.” …

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Will Gold’s Latest Rally Stick?

Sentiment extremes should be on the radar screen of all investors. That’s because they can point to buying opportunities and sharp reversals ahead.  The latest action in the gold market is a perfect example of this. Just a few short weeks ago, year-end tax loss selling was in full force and universal hatred for precious …

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