federal reserve

Beefing up Your Investment Portfolio’s Tactical Side in the Coronavirus Era

The Coronavirus outbreak has turned out to be more than just a Black Swan – it’s a totally random Black Piano from the sky that takes the Black Swan by complete surprise, landing on the poor bird. The global pandemic has penetrated nearly every element of society, totally upending healthcare, politics, business and education. What …

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Don’t Count on the Fed to Backstop Your Investments

Yes kids, stock prices can sometimes plummet. And they did during the first trading session of 2016. It’s a helpful reminder to forgetful innocents about this unforgiving fact. The chart below shows how the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) has declined 1.65% over the past month. That in itself isn’t disastrous, but stock market volatility (ChicagoOptions:^VIX) …

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Gift-Wrapped Trades Courtesy of the Fed

The almost +2% jump in the S&P 500 (SNP:^GSPC) just three-days before the release of the Federal Reserve’s no rate hike decision looks suspicious and so does the heavy call buying volume. And while this type of curious trading activity resembles insider buying right before a big corporate takeover, I’m confident the Securities and Exchange Commission will …

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Fairytale

Slaying Fiction about Gold and QE

Assassinating financial fairytales is something I enjoy doing. And the precious metals (NYSEARCA:GLTR) market is jam-packed with fiction of all sizes, flavors, and colors. One of the biggest pieces of financial propaganda promoted over the past several years is that massive monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (also known as “quantitative easing” or …

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BBQ Grill 2

Treasury Doomsayers Get Grilled by Hated Rally in Bond Prices

In late 2013 just before the Federal Reserve began its scaling back on monthly Treasury bond purchases, the conventional wisdom was that interest rates would rise and bond prices would fall. Invariably, the consensus opinion was – at it has been since “quantitative easing” or QE began in 2008 – that “interest rates have nowhere …

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Boxer Vintage Mecca Card

Don’t Let the ‘Great Yield Slide’ Punch You in the Nose

At the beginning of the year, the yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasuries was just shy of 3% and appeared ready for takeoff into the stratosphere. Alas, the long-awaited period of runaway interest rates had arrived! The something weird happened. U.S. Treasury yields (ChicagoOptions:^TNX)– like a schizophrenic mad scientist straight out of the movies – suddenly …

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Financial Geek

Stock Prices Are Cheap! Valuation Geeks Get it Wrong Again

“Stocks are cheap by historical standards” is the latest fiction being promoted by valuation geeks. Is it true? Meb Faber, proprietor of the Cambria Global Value ETF (NYSEARCA:GVAL), and a valuation guru tweeted the 5-year CAPE ratio for the usually frothy technology sector (NYSEARCA:XLK) is just 22 today compared to an elevated 96 at the height …

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Frontier Markets: Investors Double Up on Risk

Money is flowing out of risky emerging market stocks (NYSEARCA:VWO), and guess where it’s going? Into even riskier frontier market debt and stocks (NasdaqGIDS:PMNA). The Economist reports: “Investors in America and Europe were hungry to buy dollar-denominated debt offering juicy yields. Zambia drew $12 billion of orders for a ten-year bond paying only 5.4%. Pension-fund …

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