Legendary speculator Bernard Baruch once quipped: “Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”
Baruch was on to something. And since reams have been written and said about tops and bottoms in both individual securities along with broader markets (NYSEARCA:VTI),
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How difficult of a trading environment has 2016 been?
It’s been so bad that BlackRock’s $1.9 billion global credit hedge fund is off to its worst yearly start in almost two decades. According to reports, the fund was hurt by crashing junk bonds (NYSEARCA:HYG) and spiraling crude oil (NYSEARCA:USO) prices.
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Although our era of discount brokers and commission free platforms has greatly reduced the cost of online trading, the cost of buy and selling stocks along with ETFs can still add up. This is especially true when stock market volatility (ChicagoOptions:^VIX) is rising.
The chart below illustrates how historical bid-ask spreads (also known as “bid-offer spreads”) have widened by more than 40% (from just 0.8% to 1.4%) during periods of 20% or greater one-month realized volatility in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY).
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Having an entrenched view is a good recipe for failure. And perhaps, there’s no better Wall Street case study than Peter Schiff, a precious metals permabull.
Never mind his incorrect calls about a U.S. dollar collapse (NYSEARCA:UUP).
On Feb. 13, 2013, Schiff stubbornly reiterated his bullish view of gold,
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Two questions: How wrong have experts been about the gold market this year? And how much money has their bad advice cost people?
Let’s tackle the first question, by extracting and analyzing some recent headlines:
“Gold Miners Fail to Launch” – Forbes, 5/14/14
“Gold Vulnerable to Manipulative Selloff in June” – Max Keiser,
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