S&P 500

Valuation Models Say Stock Market Losses Ahead

Overpaying for anything is a bad idea. But it’s an especially bad thing when it comes to investing in the stock market. James Montier at GMO correctly observes: “Over the years I’ve witnessed many attempts by the practitioners of this most dark art to justify why tried and tested measures of valuation are no longer …

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Is this the Weakest Bull Market in History?

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one,” said Charles MacKay in his classic book the Madness of Crowds. A closer examination of the U.S. stock market’s (NasdaqGM:QQQ) action shows how the herd is …

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Are Corporate Earnings Being Gamed?

Are corporate earnings really as great as the executives at the helm and Wall Street want us to believe? Over 70% of S&P 500 (^GSPC) companies that have already reported beat analysts’ earnings estimates during the fourth quarter. Furthermore, 66% reported higher sales revenue, which is above four year averages, according to FactSet.  Equity permabulls …

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Who Turned Up the (Trading) Volume?

Price changes in the stock market occur on all-time scales. From a tick in milliseconds all the way to decades and even centuries, prices have a certain pattern. And behind all these constantly influx price changes is trading volume. Why does it matter? Trading volume refers to the number of shares or contracts traded in …

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Wall Street is Still Optimistic, Should You Be Too?

Never mind the S&P 500’s (^GSPC) mild nosedive. Wall Street’s analysts are still cheerleading stocks for 2014 as if nothing has changed. How bullish are they? Among Wall Street’s analysts, 18 out of 21 predict a 3% or greater increase for the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) in 2014.(see table below) One of the most bullish 2014 …

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Have Bullish Sentiment Extremes Caught Up with Stocks?

Memo to equity bulls: 2014 is not 2013. And thus far, it’s been a bumpy road for stocks. The  S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) broke below 1,800 for the first time this year. Have bullish sentiment extremes finally caught up with the stock market? AUDIO: Listen to Ron DeLegge @ The Index Investing Show Via our Technical …

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Is Stock Market Sentiment Too Complacent?

Here’s your “lost decade” update: The S&P 500 (ChicagoOptions:^GSPC) has risen nine out of the past 10 years and in 2013 just posted its best yearly performance in a decade. Have stock market investors become spoiled and overconfident? Measuring the stock market’s mood or “sentiment” through news headlines, surveys, and data give us clues about …

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This Seasonal Trend has been a Slam Dunk

In the winter it snows and in the spring flowers bloom.  It’s one of those things you can always count on. And like nature, the stock market, has its own set of yearly trends. One of the market’s strongest seasonal forces that has been a slam dunk this year is something called the “January Effect.” …

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