Biggest Surprises of 2025

The biggest surprise of 2025 was the US equity market crash and recovery in the first half of the year, along with the freaky Friday trend reversal between precious metals and crypto. In the first half of 2025, the S&P 500 fell 18% in less than two months and then fully recovered over the following two months. Half of the crash occurred over just two weeks.

This extreme core equity volatility severely impacted the three times levered funds on a full-year basis. TQQQ and SPXL both returned far less than three times the unlevered versions. Still, their long-term returns have been unbelievable.

Over the past 15 years, TQQQ and SPXL delivered 141x and 40x respectively. In fact, the 15-year return for TQQQ was 12 times the unlevered NASDAQ 100, and it was 23 times the return of the S&P.