sentiment

How to Profit from Rising Volatility

Stock market volatility is often wrongly portrayed by the mainstream media as an enemy. In reality, it’s not. First, prudent investors use volatility (ChicagoOptions:^VIX) as an effective tool to measure the stock market’s psychology. Why? Because excessive bullishness or bearishness in market prices is instantaneously reflected in the VIX. And therein lies the opportunity! At ETFguide, we use VIX readings in conjunction …

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Love Affair with High Risk Debt Overtakes Bond Market

The most important single factor in shaping security markets is the public’s psychology. That was Gerald Loeb’s observation about how financial markets operate. And history has proven this assessment to be consistently true. What about now? Although the broader bond market (NYSEARCA:AGG) is generally considered to be a more conservative place to invest versus stocks, there’s been …

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Excessive Bullishness Toward Gold Points to a Retreat

Sentiment extremes, regardless of whether they’re bullish or bearish, invariably point to a readjustment in prices. This undeniable truth applies to all asset classes in all time frames.  Nothing is immune to the forces of crowd behavior. (See Beanie Babies and Pokemon cards) On Jan.23, 2015 the Wall Street Journal declared “Buyers Take a Shine to Metals Again.” When …

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Are Stocks Ignoring the Bond Market’s Warning?

After gaining five consecutive years and gaining nine out the past 10 years, the U.S. stock market is on a roll. And while it’s easy to become complacent, warning signs are already showing up in the bond market. (Audio) Listen to Ron DeLegge @ The Index Investing Show The chart below illustrates how risk appetite …

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Sleeping Bear

Equity Bearishness Sinks to 20 Year Lows

Is pessimism about the stock market really as high as equity bulls claim? One measure of the stock market’s mood is the Investor’s Intelligence Sentiment Index, which offers us a compact view of how market participants feel toward stocks. The latest II data shows that bearish sentiment or pessimism toward stocks (NYSEARCA:IVV) has now hit …

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Gold and Silver Bars

How to Print Money in the Psychotic Gold Market

The gold market is the epitome of human psychosis.* On one hand, there’s the anti-gold camp that have utter disdain for precious metals 24 hours a day, eight days a week. On the other hand, there are the survivalist types, general goldbugs, and anti-Fed clan who live, breath, and eat gold at any price. Together, …

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Gold and Silver Bars

Gold vs. Silver: Is the Ratio Bullish or Bearish?

The gold/silver ratio has been on a fierce bullish run, what does it mean? This ratio measures the relative strength of gold compared to silver and is calculated by dividing one ounce of gold’s current price by one ounce of silver’s price. The gold/silver ratio boils down to how many ounces of silver you could …

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Stock Market Fear is Tapering, Greed is Back

The stock market’s wild mood swings from fear to greed and back are in full swing again. And this time around, the investing public’s fear of missing out on potential stock gains is greater than its fear of losing money. The latest Fear and Greed Index shows that stock market greed is now at extreme …

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Emerging Market Stocks: Bargain or Value Trap?

I was recently lectured on Twitter by a Wall Street strategist about why emerging market stocks (NYSEARCA:EEM) are a raging buy. Among his top arguments for being and staying long were extremely negative sentiment and chart patterns. He was particularly adamant about “depressed values” in Chinese stocks. Interestingly, the view among other strategists that emerging …

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Is Stock Market Sentiment Too Complacent?

Here’s your “lost decade” update: The S&P 500 (ChicagoOptions:^GSPC) has risen nine out of the past 10 years and in 2013 just posted its best yearly performance in a decade. Have stock market investors become spoiled and overconfident? Measuring the stock market’s mood or “sentiment” through news headlines, surveys, and data give us clues about …

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