Bonds

Lagging Small Cap Warning Sign For Stock Market?

2015 Outlook: Wall Street Hates Bonds

It’s that time of year again. You know, the wonderful season when Wall Street’s strategists crawl out of their crevices to make predictions about the year ahead. What are they prophesying for 2015? Wall Street foresees grave danger and disaster in the bond market. (Audio) Listen to Ron DeLegge @ The Index Investing Show This …

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Are Stocks Ignoring the Bond Market’s Warning?

After gaining five consecutive years and gaining nine out the past 10 years, the U.S. stock market is on a roll. And while it’s easy to become complacent, warning signs are already showing up in the bond market. (Audio) Listen to Ron DeLegge @ The Index Investing Show The chart below illustrates how risk appetite …

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One Place Where So-Called “Smart Beta” Hasn’t Been Very Smart

Never mind what the cute marketing brochures or what nouveau indexers say. The trumped-up allegations that beta is somehow “smart” or “better” is a grand ole fairytale. (Audio) Listen to Ron DeLegge @ The Index Investing Show While “smart beta” types (formerly referred to as fundamental indexers) are pumping up their equity concoctions (NYSEARCA:PRF), their …

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The Bull Market in U.S. Treasuries that Just Won’t Quit

Stocks around the globe are swooning and bonds are zooming. The almost 3% correction in the S&P 500 (SNP:^GSPC) over the past week has pushed long-term Treasury bond ETFs (NYSEARCA:TLT) higher by around 2.75%.  And just like that, the bull market in bonds that 100% of Wall Street’s economists said would end badly in 2014 …

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Stock ETFs Rake in Assets

Stock ETFs Keep Vacuuming in Assets

Never mind how U.S. stocks are at all-time highs.  People are pouring more money into stock tracking ETFs. The top three ETFs by asset inflows over the past week were the iShares S&P MidCap ETF (NYSEARCA:IJH), iShares S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV), and the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 ETF (NasdaqGM:QQQ).  IJH raked in almost $1 billion while QQQ …

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Race Cars 2

These 2 Categories are Beating the S&P 500

While Wall Street and the mainstream media is enamored by one all-time high after another in the U.S. stock market (NYSEARCA:DIA), other key investment themes have largely been ignored or forgotten. If the S&P 500 (SNP:^GSPC) stays the same or edges higher, it’ll mean five consecutive yearly gains and nine gains out of the past 10 years. …

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How Long Will it Take Before Bond Yields Hit Bottom?

A skilled magician knows the art of distracting the audience is just as important as mastering the trick. And the magicians on Wall Street have once again successfully deflected the investing public’s attention to U.S. stocks near record highs. You see, Wall Street doesn’t want to focus on the reality that long-term U.S. Treasuries have crushed …

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Car Crash 1

One Rally That Has Blindsided Wall Street’s Throngs

It seems nobody on Wall Street can stop talking about how the S&P 500 just breached its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2012. From bedazzled TV anchors to nouveau bears, it’s suddenly everybody’s favorite chart, minus Abby Joseph Cohen. The other chart nobody wants to discuss is the significant outperformance of …

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Bubbles Floating

So this is the Bursting of the Bond Market’s Bubble?

Never mind which company Bill Gross is working at this week. The talking heads on Wall Street have been ranting about the bursting of the bond market’s bubble for years and it’s getting old. They did it in 2009. They did it in 2010. They did it in 2011. They did it in 2012. They …

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Stop Sign Crossing

Are Junk Bonds Signaling Pause in Equity Rally?

What does the bond market know that the stock market doesn’t? Even the U.S. stocks (NYSEARCA:IWV) have been scoring one record high after another, the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:JNK) has gone in the opposite direction. The performance divergence between high yield bonds (also known as “junk bonds) (NYSEARCA:HYG) and the S&P 500 …

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Warren Buffett is Once Again Doing the Opposite of the Crowd

The disdain for cash is nearly universal. Cash instruments like money market funds are yielding around 0%. And nobody needs or wants cash because stocks are up. The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:IVV) just rallied 3.8% in August, almost one-third its year-to-date (YTD) gain of 9.73%. AUDIO:  Listen to Ron DeLegge @ The Index Investing Show Performing …

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BBQ Grill 2

Treasury Doomsayers Get Grilled by Hated Rally in Bond Prices

In late 2013 just before the Federal Reserve began its scaling back on monthly Treasury bond purchases, the conventional wisdom was that interest rates would rise and bond prices would fall. Invariably, the consensus opinion was – at it has been since “quantitative easing” or QE began in 2008 – that “interest rates have nowhere …

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Ocean Waves

Bull Market in Borrowing: Corporate Debt Skyrockets to $9.6 Trillion

How healthy are corporate balance sheets? It depends who you ask. One news outlet said that U.S. firms are hoarding a record $1.6 trillion in cash led by Apple, Google, and Microsoft. Shockingly, that same report made no mention of corporate debt levels, which are also at all-time records. During the previous 2009 recession high, …

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Don’t Make These Widespread Mutual Fund Mistakes!

“People should only buy mutual funds with experienced portfolio managers that have good long-term track records.” “Investing in highly rated mutual funds with at least 4 or 5 stars is a sure-fire way to choose the best fund.” “Our firm screens thousands of mutual funds to help our clients find funds and managers that have …

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Boxer Vintage Mecca Card

Don’t Let the ‘Great Yield Slide’ Punch You in the Nose

At the beginning of the year, the yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasuries was just shy of 3% and appeared ready for takeoff into the stratosphere. Alas, the long-awaited period of runaway interest rates had arrived! The something weird happened. U.S. Treasury yields (ChicagoOptions:^TNX)– like a schizophrenic mad scientist straight out of the movies – suddenly …

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Portfolio diversification

Should You Be 100% Invested in Stocks?

Investors should have 100% of their money invested in stocks! That’s what Laurence Fink, the chief executive officer at BlackRock declared in 2012. Since then, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:IVV) has broken above record levels and is now 43% higher compared to a -1.4% loss for the total U.S. bond market (NYSEARCA:BND). While Fink’s advice looks smart …

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Falling Bricks

A $725,000 Portfolio on Shaky Ground

Having a six or seven figure sized investment portfolio doesn’t automatically make it smart. Such is the case with a $725,000 investment portfolio that I recently graded. An investment Portfolio Report Card request was made to me by a mid-40s software engineer who described himself as an “aggressive investor.” Software is a pretty aggressive business and …

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Why Do So Many Investors Self-Destruct?

“The investor’s chief problem—and even his worst enemy—is likely to be himself,” once quipped the great Benjamin Graham. The truth of Graham’s observation is seen in the consistent pattern of mutual fund investors to self-destruct. AUDIO: Listen to Ron DeLegge @ The Index Investing Show Over the past 30 years, the typical stock mutual fund investor’s performance has …

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Fearful Lady

Building Your Investment Portfolio Shouldn’t Be Scary

How frightened to invest are people? So frightened, they’d rather die! A poll taken by Harris Interactive for Nationwide Financial found that 62% of surveyed respondents are afraid of investing in the stock market while just 58% are afraid of dying. Building your own investment portfolio from scratch is a fearful task for many people, …

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Boxer Vintage Mecca Card

How to Beat the Low Yield Cycle

How would you like an 11% cut to your paycheck? That’s exactly what’s happened to income investors who own long-term Treasuries (ChicagoOptions:^TYX). At the beginning of the year, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields (NYSEARCA:TLT) were above 3.90% but have trended lower. That’s not what income investors who piled into long-term Treasuries were expecting. Their plan was to capture more …

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