Technical Analysis

Stocks: What’s the Most Profitable Trading Strategy during the U.S. Presidential Election Cycle?

Which years within the U.S Presidential election year cycle are best for equity investors? This is an excerpt from ETFguide TV How Stocks Behave during the Presidential Election Cycle with Ron DeLegge at ETFguide. Super Tuesday is over and leading candidates for the U.S. presidency on the Democratic side are becoming more clear. One of …

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What to Do About Fading Stock Market Momentum

Wall Street has been so busy with one all-time high after another, many have already long-forgotten that it’s  been over one-year since the stock market corrected by 10% or more. But as the great poets say, “we don’t remember the days, we only remember the moments.” (Audio) Are ETFs turning people into day traders?  At this …

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Should Correlations Drive Your Investment Decisions?

Do stock market correlations matter? Statisticians use correlations (or cross-correlation) to measure the relationship between asset classes or investments. The general idea is to better understand the similarity or dissimilarity in how investments perform against each other and to build a portfolio of investments that can benefit. The CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index (ChicagoOptions:^KCJ) …

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Energy Sector Crushes Conventional Wisdom

Never mind the abysmal results of first quarter earnings for the depressed energy sector. It doesn’t matter. And never mind the conventional wisdom of group-think and scary analyst warnings like,  “Energy stocks are in deep trouble because Q1 losses will mark the first time any sector in the S&P 500 has reported an aggregate loss since …

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Excessive Bullishness Toward Gold Points to a Retreat

Sentiment extremes, regardless of whether they’re bullish or bearish, invariably point to a readjustment in prices. This undeniable truth applies to all asset classes in all time frames.  Nothing is immune to the forces of crowd behavior. (See Beanie Babies and Pokemon cards) On Jan.23, 2015 the Wall Street Journal declared “Buyers Take a Shine to Metals Again.” When …

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A Seasonal Snapshot of the S&P 500

Although we know market prices always trump seasonality in terms of importance, we shouldn’t completely ignore the significance of historical seasonal trends. Since 1996, the S&P 500 (SNP:^GSPC) has ended higher during the month of January 55% of the time but with a flat return. This particular January appears to be an obvious divergence from this trend. …

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Super Bowl Indicator: Bullish or Bearish?

Sometimes the quirkiest predictors of stock market performance are the most accurate. And for whatever reason, the Super Bowl Indicator fits that precise description. It has scored an accuracy ratio of 81% over the past 48 Super Bowl games. How does it work? If the NFC team wins, the U.S. stock market (NYSEARCA:DIA) will end the …

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Is the Table for Higher Stock Market Volatility Set?

Rising stock market volatility on the heels of rising stock prices is among the most intriguing market developments over the past few months. And it’s gone little noticed by the mainstream financial media. Our chart below shows how this phenomenon has unfolded. Do you notice how the total U.S. stock market (NYSEARCA:VTI) and the S&P 500 (ChicagoOptions:^GSPC) …

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Are Momentum Stocks Losing their Momentum?

Are momentum stocks losing their luster? High flying momentum stocks like Tesla Motors (NasdaqGS:TSLA), Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), and GoPro (NasdaqGS:GPRO) have experienced sharp pullbacks over the past few months. Tesla and Twitter have fallen below their 50-day and 200-day moving average while GoPro now trades below its 50-day moving average. What’s next? (Audio)Listen to Ron DeLegge @ The Index Investing …

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Psst…Volatility is Still Outperforming the S&P 500

One week after the VIX (ChicagoOptions:^VIX) spiked to 30, Wall Street’s Kool-Aid drunks are back to saying that stock market volatility is over. It’s done. And it’s never returning. The Santa Claus rally in small cap stocks (NYSEARCA:IWM) and technology shares (NYSEARCA:XLK) smack dab in the middle of October, now has Sand Hill road (Silicon …

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One Rally That Has Blindsided Wall Street’s Throngs

It seems nobody on Wall Street can stop talking about how the S&P 500 just breached its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2012. From bedazzled TV anchors to nouveau bears, it’s suddenly everybody’s favorite chart, minus Abby Joseph Cohen. The other chart nobody wants to discuss is the significant outperformance of …

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Is the Stock Market’s Momentum Fading?

This just in: U.S. stocks are at record highs, but caveat emptor. Why? Because fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the rally. Almost half of the stocks (47%) within the Nasdaq Composite (NYSEARCA:ONEQ) are 20% lower from their peak over the past year. And although Apple (NasdaqGS:AAPL), Facebook (NasdaqGS:FB), and Microsoft (NasdaqGS:MSFT) have lifted …

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Treasury Doomsayers Get Grilled by Hated Rally in Bond Prices

In late 2013 just before the Federal Reserve began its scaling back on monthly Treasury bond purchases, the conventional wisdom was that interest rates would rise and bond prices would fall. Invariably, the consensus opinion was – at it has been since “quantitative easing” or QE began in 2008 – that “interest rates have nowhere …

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Fairytale

The No Market Volatility Fairytale

Has 2014 stock market volatility really gone the way of dodo birds and dinosaurs as claimed? The news du jour is that falling VIX means that stock market volatility (NYSEARCA:SPY) is non-existent. Is it true? Recent headlines give this innuendo. Here’s a tiny sample: VIX Tumbles to 9-month Lows – Zerohedge VIX Volatility Index Falls …

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Experts Get the Gold Market Wrong (again)

Two questions: How wrong have experts been about the gold market this year? And how much money has their bad advice cost people? Let’s tackle the first question, by extracting and analyzing some recent headlines: “Gold Miners Fail to Launch” – Forbes, 5/14/14 “Gold Vulnerable to Manipulative Selloff in June” – Max Keiser, 5/30/14 “Why …

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How to Print Money in the Psychotic Gold Market

The gold market is the epitome of human psychosis.* On one hand, there’s the anti-gold camp that have utter disdain for precious metals 24 hours a day, eight days a week. On the other hand, there are the survivalist types, general goldbugs, and anti-Fed clan who live, breath, and eat gold at any price. Together, …

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Industry Sectors

3 Industry Sectors Vital to the Stock Market’s Health

Performance divergences, especially in key industry sectors, are either supportive or non-supportive of the broader stock market’s move. Although the S&P 500 (SNP:^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) have notched new highs this year, small cap stock ETFs linked to the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) and S&P SmallCap 600 (NYSEARCA:IJR) continue to lag. The fact …

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How to Beat the Low Yield Cycle

How would you like an 11% cut to your paycheck? That’s exactly what’s happened to income investors who own long-term Treasuries (ChicagoOptions:^TYX). At the beginning of the year, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields (NYSEARCA:TLT) were above 3.90% but have trended lower. That’s not what income investors who piled into long-term Treasuries were expecting. Their plan was to capture more …

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Treasury Bonds Sizzle, High Tech Fizzles

What do you get when you add up Twitter, Yelp, and Weibo? Answer: Deflation. That’s the latest joke as former high-flying tech stocks fizzle, while Treasury bonds sizzle. Over the past several weeks we’ve seen a major shift in the market’s psychology away from risky equity bets. And as these high risk/high beta equity segments …

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